Intelligent speculation

I spoke with a new faculty member and discussed media, and I used a phrase that's been helpful to me: Intelligent speculation.

Something that made my job easier was the collapse of Enron. I don't mean to sound flip, because many people suffered by that, but it helped me in this sense: the media knew that Enron was broke, but aside from that, nobody knew anything. Yet the media needed to report on this story. So, instead of hard analysis, they looked for intelligent speculation. Here, the experts speculated on the causes and affects of the collapse; later, when hard facts and details emerged, then the experts could comment on those items.

But intelligent speculation goes much further than that: as this faculty member pointed out, there are often no answers to questions, so in lieu of an answer, an expert's intelligent speculation can fill in the gaps and keep the public informed (to a degree).

If there's one field where intelligent speculation thrives, it's politics. Primary season ends in May, and the elections are in November. In addition to the day-to-day happening, readers/viewers want to know who'll win; there's no answer to that, so intelligent speculation is plied.

This isn't to say that "IS" can be used in every case; often experts are asked for their opinions ("Is this a good policy" or "will this boost the economy" or "will this trade make the Phillies a contender"), but again, those opinions are based on their expertise.